Phind gives a Statistical Analysis of the Sweet 16 Matchup between Marquette and NC State in the 2024 March Madness Basketball Tournament

Based on the information provided, Marquette is favored to win against NC State in the NCAA March Madness Sweet 16 game. The computer predictions and expert analyses suggest a Marquette victory, with a projected score of 77-71 in favor of Marquette. The spread is set at 6.5 points in favor of Marquette, indicating the odds favor Marquette to win.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Marquette:

  • Strengths: Marquette’s strength lies in its pick and roll offense, led by Tyler Kolek, who has been dominant in recent games. Kolek’s performance, including back-to-back 10/10/5 lines, is highlighted as a significant factor in Marquette’s success. The team’s scoring efficiency from pick and roll possessions is noted as top-25 and third best among teams with at least 25 such possessions per game.
  • Weaknesses: Marquette’s defense has been noted for its aggressive double-teaming strategy, which could potentially expose them to more scoring opportunities for opponents. However, this strategy has been effective against teams that struggle with double-teaming, as evidenced by their performance against Oakland in the first round.

Strengths and Weaknesses of NC State:

  • Strengths: NC State’s strength is in its post-up game, led by D.J. Burns. The team’s efficiency in this area, averaging 1.144 points per possession on almost 18 possessions a game during their seven-game win streak, is highlighted. This post-heavy strategy has been effective in extending their season.
  • Weaknesses: NC State has had difficulty containing the pick-and-roll defensively, allowing .911 points per possession this season. However, their defense has tightened up in their recent winning streak, allowing only .877 points per pick and roll possession.

In summary, Marquette’s pick and roll offense, led by standout player Tyler Kolek, is a significant strength, while NC State’s post-up game, particularly the performance of D.J. Burns, is a key strength. Marquette’s aggressive defense, which could potentially expose them to scoring opportunities, is a notable weakness, while NC State’s defensive struggles against the pick and roll have been a weakness but have improved in recent games.

Marquette’s performance in recent games has been strong, with a record of 19-13-0 against the spread, indicating a slight edge in games where they were favored. In their last 10 games, Marquette has a 6-4 record against the spread and a 7-3 overall record, showcasing their consistency and ability to perform well in close games.

NC State, on the other hand, has a slightly lower record against the spread, with a 17-20-0 mark. Their games have gone over the total more frequently, with a record of 23-14-0 for games involving the Wolfpack. This suggests that NC State has been involved in more high-scoring games compared to Marquette.

In terms of overall performance, Marquette outscores opponents by 8.7 points per game, with a scoring differential. They score 78.6 points per game and allow 69.9 per contest. Marquette’s performance in rebounding, three-point shooting, and turnover battle also indicates a balanced and competitive team. They lose the rebound battle by three boards on average, make 9 three-pointers per game, and have a slight edge in the turnover battle, committing 9.8 per game while forcing 13.6.

Comparatively, NC State’s performance details are not explicitly provided in the sources, but their record against the spread and their tendency to go over the total in games suggest they may have a more aggressive and high-scoring style of play.

Overall, Marquette’s recent performance, including their record against the spread and their balanced scoring and defensive statistics, indicates a strong team capable of competing in close games. NC State’s performance, while not detailed, is suggested by their record against the spread and their tendency to go over the total, indicating a team that may excel in high-scoring games.

3 thoughts on “Phind gives a Statistical Analysis of the Sweet 16 Matchup between Marquette and NC State in the 2024 March Madness Basketball Tournament”

  1. Marquette vs. NC State: Sweet 16 Preview
    The second-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles will face off against the 11th-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on Friday, March 29 in Dallas, Texas.

    Marquette Golden Eagles
    Marquette has needed to battle to get this far in the tournament. They erased a seven-point halftime deficit in the first round to avoid an upset bid from Western Kentucky, and then survived a comeback effort from Colorado in the second round, winning 81-77.
    The Golden Eagles have been led by their star backcourt duo of Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones. Kolek and Jones have combined to average 42.5 points per game in Marquette’s first two tournament games.
    Kolek is just the third player in the last 10 years to total more than 30 points and 20 assists in back-to-back tournament games.
    He is also the first player since Jason Kidd in 1993 to post consecutive games of at least 10 points, 10 assists and 5 rebounds in a single NCAA Championship.
    Marquette’s offense was extremely efficient in their win over Colorado, shooting a season-best 61.8% from the field.
    The Golden Eagles were above 70% from the floor for a majority of the first half against Colorado.

    NC State Wolfpack
    NC State has been on a remarkable run to reach the Sweet 16. As the 10th seed in the ACC Tournament, the Wolfpack needed to win 5 games in 5 days to even make the NCAA Tournament, including an upset win over North Carolina in the ACC championship game.
    In the NCAA Tournament, NC State has already pulled off upsets over 6th-seeded Texas Tech and 14th-seeded Oakland.
    The Wolfpack are led offensively by guard DJ Horne, who averages 16.7 points per game.
    However, the breakout star for NC State has been forward DJ Burns Jr., who is averaging 12.8 points per game and has emerged as one of the tournament’s standout players.

    This matchup features an intriguing contrast in styles, with Marquette’s perimeter-oriented attack going up against NC State’s interior-focused offense. The Wolfpack’s ability to protect the rim and limit turnovers could pose problems for the Golden Eagles.
    However, Marquette’s backcourt duo of Kolek and Jones has been dominant so far in the tournament, and the Golden Eagles’ efficient offense will be difficult for NC State to contain. Marquette’s experience and talent should be enough to overcome the Wolfpack’s Cinderella run.
    Marquette 77, NC State 70

  2. Marquette is generally favored to win against NC State in their Sweet 16 matchup of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Marquette has been highlighted as a more than five-point favorite over NC State, reflecting the team’s strong performance throughout the season and their impressive seven-game win streak leading into the tournament. Their odds and performance suggest a strong potential to advance to the Elite Eight​​.

    Marquette’s key strengths include a solid season performance with a 21-14-1 record against the spread, indicating consistent play. They have been particularly strong when favored by 6.5 points or more, achieving a 12-5 record against the spread in those matchups. Additionally, the team’s ability to perform well in games with high over/under points totals, as well as their strong home record of 14-2 overall and 11-5 against the spread, demonstrate their offensive capabilities and resilience​​.

    NC State, on the other hand, has been performing as a compelling underdog. Despite an 18-19-1 record against the spread, the team has won seven consecutive games. A significant part of their success has been their ability to win as an underdog, covering the spread in five of those seven wins. This resilience and ability to upset higher-seeded teams highlight NC State’s strengths​​.

    Both teams have displayed tendencies that could make the game competitive, such as their ability to cover high over/under totals and succeed against the spread under specific conditions. Marquette’s strength seems to be their offensive power and the critical role of player Tyler Kolek in their lineup, whose performance has been pivotal in their successes so far​​.

    Given these dynamics, the matchup between Marquette and NC State promises to be an exciting and closely contested game, with Marquette favored but NC State carrying the potential for another upset.

  3. Marquette vs NC State: Sweet 16 Matchup
    Marquette is considered the favorite to advance to the Elite Eight in their matchup against NC State. Here’s a breakdown of both teams:

    Marquette Golden Eagles (Strength: -6.5 point favorite according to CBS Sports)
    Balanced Scoring: Marquette doesn’t rely on one player. They have several threats like Tyler Kolek and David Joplin who can score consistently.
    Strong Defense: They’ve shown toughness throughout the tournament, overcoming deficits and making key plays down the stretch.
    Experienced Coaching: Head coach Shaka Smart has a history of success in the NCAA Tournament.
    Size Disadvantage: Center Oso Ighodaro is mobile but might struggle against NC State’s big man, DJ Burns.
    Recent Close Games: Marquette has needed to fight hard in each of their tournament games.

    NC State Wolfpack
    Dominant Post Presence: DJ Burns is a force inside, averaging a double-double and a challenge for any defense.
    Upset Potential: They’ve already knocked off higher seeds in the tournament and shouldn’t be underestimated.
    Inconsistent Offense: Outside of Burns, NC State’s scoring can be sporadic.
    Vulnerable Defense: They haven’t always been consistent on defense, which could be exploited by Marquette’s scorers.

    Marquette’s overall balance and defensive prowess give them the edge. However, NC State has the potential to pull off an upset if they can exploit Marquette’s size disadvantage and get Burns going offensively.

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